I can see a line of reasoning to your theory, but I can't buy it unless you have some facts to back it up. Many a theory based on a small set of anecdotal evidence withers with the introduction of actual documentation. Furthermore, that has not been my experience or what I have observed in others.
I think you may have gotten a bit of a bad reaction to your theory by some posters because the WT uses this idea as propaganda on its followers to try to keep them in. That, too, doesn't mean it isn't true. But without any documentation it remains an open question.
I am reminded also, that the WT claims that most "worldly" people live debached and morally degrading lifestyles. Now that I am no longer a JW and actually know some of those people, I see how completely untrue and self-serving that assertion is. The WT has a history of making outrageous claims that promote their agenda.
For the above reasons, I am very skeptical of the idea that leaving the WT has a causal relationship to people getting into some kind of trouble.